NATIONAL — Independent truck drivers and owner-operators across the country say the historic surge in diesel prices following the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28 may be the final blow for small trucking companies already battered by years of declining freight demand.

Diesel prices have risen more than 85 cents per gallon since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, reaching approximately $4.59 per gallon nationally and topping $5 per gallon in some markets, including Erie, Pennsylvania, where AAA reported prices up roughly $1 from a month ago. Most drivers are spending at least an extra $200 at the pump, with some spending four times that amount depending on how many gallons their truck holds.

Patrick Frank, an independent driver in Erie, said the financial strain extends beyond the fuel pump. "It's just overall everything, like you know whether or not you can buy food for the house, pay bills and everything else cause it comes off the bottom line. So, it's a killer right now," Frank said. He estimates he is spending an extra $200 per fill-up — about $600 more per week. Company driver Jerry Dabila Jr. of Texas said prices are erratic across the country. "Out here, eventually it's a lot higher, so further you go east or west, it starts dropping down a little bit. Still, it's crazy," Dabila said.

For Jamie Hagen, president of Hell Bent Xpress and a longtime independent trucker, the diesel spike has pushed his business to the edge. "For us to absorb this cost for much more than a few months means extinction. Fuel was the death blow to an already beaten up industry," Hagen said. He described the surge as the culmination of a years-long decline. "This is sort of the nail in the coffin. This raise in cost could slow the momentum we had going into 2026. After 3 years of downturns, Hell Bent Xpress doesn't have a year 4 left in it. It is now or never. Henceforth why I don't sleep much at night these days," Hagen said.

Hagen said the pace of the price increase has made contract renegotiation nearly impossible. "I'm actively trying to renegotiate contracts with some verbiage to help with the situation. Typically, fuel doesn't rise this fast. At a slower pace we could have eventually just raised the rate of our contracts, but this is bonkers. We don't have contracts in place with a good fuel surcharge," he said. Looking back on his career, Hagen added, "I've been in this industry my entire life and I've never experienced anything like this. I've seen small slow downs and reduced demand but never a three year stretch before. I'm known for being a very efficient operator and this has outpaced anything I was prepared for."

The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association echoed those concerns. "Our members often work load to load and can't simply raise their rates when fuel spikes the way their larger competitors can. With freight rates already low, a sharp increase in diesel can quickly eat up what little margin a small trucking business has left," OOIDA said. While large carriers like UPS and FedEx have issued surcharges on top of their 5.9% General Rate Increase to offset costs, independent owner-operators have far fewer options.

The freight market was already struggling before the diesel surge, mired in a recession since 2022 as post-pandemic consumer spending shifted away from goods and back toward services, creating an oversupply of trucks chasing too few loads. Some had been cautiously optimistic that the Trump administration's immigration crackdown on non-domiciled CDL holders would help correct the oversupply problem. FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller wrote in late 2025 that new immigration restrictions could "trigger a massive capacity crunch" and pull the industry out of its prolonged recession, with spot rates having fallen to $2.28 per mile in mid-2025 from $3.53 per mile in early 2022. However, the historic diesel spike has cast doubt on whether small carriers can survive long enough to benefit from any market correction.

American Trucking Association Chief Economist Bob Costello warned that higher pump prices could indirectly reduce freight demand. "When consumers pay more at the pump, they have less money to spend on other goods that motor carriers haul for their customers. So, it can hurt freight volumes," Costello said. Trucking analyst Justin Martin noted that consumers themselves may be somewhat insulated. "Because of economies of scale, consumers are protected somewhat from a rise in transportation costs. Even if shipping rates doubled, we'd only be looking at a 1-3% increase in the retail price of the item being moved," Martin said.

Global oil market volatility is expected to continue as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Drivers said they are hoping prices stabilize ahead of the Easter spring shipping season but are not holding out much hope given the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

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